Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Modern Banking Services on the Level of Bank Production (Evidence from a panel NARDL Model)
Pages 1-28
https://doi.org/10.22034/jifb.2026.577708.1659
Mahdi Mohamadzadeh Monfared, Maryam Ebrahimi, Hossein Kassiri
Abstract This study examines the effect of modern banking services on the level of bank output in Iran and specifically analyzes the asymmetric nature of these effects within the framework of the NARDL model. For this purpose, panel data from 13 banks during 2016-2023 were used and a composite index of modern banking services was constructed using principal component analysis (PCA). To control for structural heterogeneity of banks and macroeconomic conditions, control variables derived from bank balance sheet characteristics and macroeconomic indicators were also added to the model using principal component analysis in the form of two composite factors. The results of the linear ARDL model show that modern banking services have a positive and significant effect on bank output only in the long run and that their effect is not significant in the short run. The results of the asymmetric NARDL model provide a more accurate and deeper picture of the relationship between modern banking services and the level of output. The long-term findings indicate a significant asymmetry in the impact of new banking services such that an increase in new banking services (+T) increases bank output but that a decrease (-T) causes a sharper and larger decline in output. Based on the results, technology plays a role as a long-term driver of bank output. Negative technology shocks have more severe destructive effects than the benefits from positive shocks, which is consistent with theoretical concepts such as technology stickiness and technological risk and policymakers should prioritize the sustainable maintenance and improvement of technology infrastructure and the prevention of negative shocks.






